We are seeing that they are leading to much greater amounts of populism/extremism and conflicts between the right and the left, which is classic. That way we can envision the typical path to help us form expectations of what is coming next and see whether we are on or off that path.īy most of the measures that I use, the current financial conditions and irreconcilable differences in desires and values are consistent with the ingredients leading to some form of civil war. Here I will describe it briefly so together we can monitor actual developments relative to the typical sequence of developments. To do that I want to put what is now happening in the context of the typical cycle. In my book, I looked at many cycles which then made clear what the typical cycle looks like. My goal is simply to pass along what I see for you to consider for yourself. Maybe my views are right and maybe they’re wrong. Notably, when that happens at the same time as there are foreign powers that are becoming strong enough to challenge the leading world power that is encountering this civil war dynamic, it is an especially risky period. That is the period I believe we are now in. … leads to some sort of fighting for control (rather than compromising according to the rules) which is a “civil war,” though these fights can be more or less violent. … 2) large wealth and values gaps in which people are more willing to fight for what they want than to compromise… …1) financial problems due to not having enough money that lead to large deficits, high taxes, a lot of money printing, and high inflation, and… What is obvious from looking at many cycles of rises and declines of different historical cases is that the combination of… While the classic cycle is covered more completely in my book in Chapter 5, “The Big Cycle of Internal Order and Disorder,” I will give a distillation of that here. In this post I’d like to show you both what that path looks like and where the US appears to be on it.
For reasons covered more completely in my book Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order, the US appears to be on a classic path toward some form of civil war.
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